Compete’s latest search engine market share numbers are out, and, as usual, Google is a winner, Microsoft’s Live Search, Ask and AOL hold steady, and Yahoo is bleeding out. Yahoo’s market share fell another third of a percentage point, now down six full points, or over 25%, in the last year. Google went up over half a point, pulling almost seven percent higher on the year.
Most interesting are the marks for search volume. The number of searches on all the major search engines are way, way up from last year; all, except Yahoo:
|
Percentage gain |
| Google |
51% |
| Ask.com |
49.4% |
| AOL |
46.7% |
| Live Search |
32.7% |
| Yahoo |
0.3% |
Yeah, Yahoo doesn’t need anybody’s help.
February 11th, 2008
Posted by
Nathan Weinberg |
Live, Yahoo Acquisition, Yahoo, AskJeeves, Windows, Google, Search |
2 comments
Valleywag posted a rumor that Microsoft was looking to acquire Ustream.TV, a popular service for streaming live video. Many web users (including myself) use Ustream to show live webcam video to friends or website visitors, and a growing number of events are being broadcast by Ustream thanks to partnerships. This summer, the Republican National Convention will stream live on Ustream, a major coup that will get the startup a lot of attention.
There is no question why Microsoft would be interested in Ustream. The rumored asking price is $50 million, relatively cheap for a feature that YouTube doesn’t have and could provide a lot of users and buzz to MSN Video/Soapbox. Microsoft wants to be a player in the fast-growing online video market, and Ustream could be the killer app to elevate MS’s online video offerings into the wider public consciousness.
Think about it: YouTube for video clips, MSN Ustream for live video. Could definitely work.
I’ve been hearing rumblings that Microsoft is already building the next version of MSN Video and Soapbox, one that runs on Silverlight, probably before this summer. When complete, online video, including embedded shared videos, will become a major part of Microsoft’s strategy for rich content on the web and the online developer community. Buying Ustream could be a smart way to improve not just Microsoft’s online video aspirations, but as a means of bolstering Microsoft’s ultimate goal of luring developers to its platforms.
February 11th, 2008
Posted by
Nathan Weinberg |
Soapbox, MSN |
2 comments
Yahoo’s board voted to reject Microsoft’s $44.6 billion offer to buy the company. The board rejected the offer, saying it “massively undervalues” Yahoo, and thinks that Yahoo’s investments in Panama will eventually pay off and remove the need for the company to be bailed out, at least at that price. Most believe that the company will agree to a sales at $40 a share, $12 billion higher than the original $31 offer.
The problem for Yahoo is that investors want Microsoft to buy the company, and if the Yahoo board manages to screw this one up, the market will make them suffer. There are only a few possible scenarios left for the embattled internet company:
- Microsoft increases its offer to match the $40 level. That would require $56 billion, half cash, half stock. Microsoft was already going to borrow about $10 billion, now it’ll have to pick up $15-18 billion in cash, plus give up an additional $6 billion in stock. It’s a lot of extra money, and Microsoft may balk. Luckily, there’s always option two:
- Bargain the price down. Microsoft wants $31, Yahoo wants $40? You don’t have to be King Solomon to think up $45.5 per share. That’s mean an even $50 billion, and extra $3 billion in cash to borrow and $3 billion in Microsoft stock to give to Yahoo shareholders. Perhaps a little more manageable.
- Or, Microsoft could go hostile, and bring the $31 offer to Yahoo’s shareholders. The shareholders are freaked at the idea of Microsoft quitting on them, since they bid up the share price and stand to lose a lot as the stock tanks after a withdrawn offer. A hostile takeover bid would put Microsoft in charge of the terms, getting the price it wants and kicking Yahoo’s board to the curb. The company stockholder meeting, later this Spring, will be the site of a showdown.
- Finally, Microsoft could quit. The stock price will fall at least ten, possibly fifteen dollars. Heads will roll on the board as shareholders demand someone pay the price. The turmoil of the event rocks the company and sends even more employees for the hills. And, just as things seem at their worst, Microsoft offers to buy the company… for $27 a share.
Some other things to note: Microsoft’s offer to buy Yahoo has sent its own stock price down four and half dollars since the offer was made, costing the company over $40 billion off it’s own market cap. That means, until the stock recovers, Microsoft will have lost something like $80 billion, plus.
One other problem: Since Microsoft’s offer is half for cash, half for stock in Microsoft, that means that as Microsoft’s shares decline, so does the offer. With the stock portion now down the $26.64 per Yahoo share, the full offer is $28.82 per share, making it worth $41.46 billion, down over three billion dollars. If the price decreases further, Microsoft will either save money, or have to increase it’s offer either way.
You can use the MSFT-YHOO bid calculator to determine the difference between Microsoft’s original offer and the current price, based on market fluctuations.
February 11th, 2008
Posted by
Nathan Weinberg |
Yahoo Acquisition, Corporate, Yahoo |
no comments
